As much as I love the song contests, I'm not good at picking the winner; there are way too many variables in the criteria. You have to guess what Europe will like, not to choose your own favourite act, or the best song, or best/weirdest performance, or the cutest singer. Eurovision is a show, remember, that has opera singers, albino vampires and turkey puppets, all competing for teh same prize. It's a little like Ed Sullivan on acid.
The melodifestival is Sweden's process to pick their entrant; in fact Sweden makes a bigger production of it than every other country. This year's rules have a professional jury as part of the process, to make it harder for the telephone voters to send a novelty act to Moscow.
So that leaves us only the credible acts to choose from, which narrows things down some. Last year's winner, Dima Bilan, was a cute guy with a novelty skater and violinist joining him. I think Måns Zimmerlöw is pretty close to the same mold; his is a bit more upbeat Europop song, with eye candy dancer/singers in backup, and so I am picking him to be Sweden's choice this year.
Sooz is putting her money on Alcazar, which is a good choice too; they are truly old-school Eurovision, which might be musical comfort food in these tough times.